Do We Need AI Government? – Part 2

(read Part 1 here)

I have seen it many times while watching chess commentators (typically, Grandmasters of the highest level) performing game analysis in real time.  These GMs will be considering different possibilities for both sides and, infrequently, when the situation becomes too complex and unclear, say something like, “Hey, let’s check with the chess engine now…. Oh, it gives a strong advantage to White, but I don’t see why…. It says to do… WHAT?!  And then… WHAT?! No…. these are not “human-like moves”, the players will not do that. This is too deep and machine-like…”.

The truth is that even the strongest Grandmasters often feel like little children when comparing their own analysis to that of a machine. But this is exactly why they are using machine analysis!

Lucky for chess, nobody suspects that “Stockfish” or “AlfaZero” have some ulterior motives, biases, don’t like some of the players, or wants to take advantage of somebody.  Chess engines are considered to be fast, powerful, accurate, and objective analysis and decision-making tools capable of finding the best solution for any situation and being useful to us by simply being better than us.  And nothing else.

And this is exactly how the future AI governments should look like: fast, powerful, accurate, and objective analysis and decision-making TOOLS capable of finding the best solution for any situation and being useful to us by being better than us. And nothing else.

Machine learning (ML) might already offer a possible approach needed to build and test such an “AI governance engine” and create the entire democratic election process using ML’s normal training and testing approach and steps:

  • Provide the “governance engine” with a training dataset of historical or other examples that are of high value to us and explain how to classify them (for example, “bad” or “good”).  Cover important social, economic, judicial, cultural, and educational fields.  For example, imagine thousands upon thousands of statements or questions along with their classifiers/answers presented like this:
    • “Rosa Parks rejected bus driver James F. Blake’s order to relinquish her seat in the “colored section” to a white passenger.  Was she right or should she have stayed in the colored section?”. The answer: Rosa Parks was right. The driver was wrong.
    • Or, “greater investments in children education” are good. Cutting these investments is bad.
    • Cutting forest in Amazon delta is bad.  Reducing industrial water and air pollution is good.

We have tons of examples like this from our past and present.

  • Keep another dataset of examples with answers for testing. We will use it later to verify that the engine works well.

(Comment: The general population should take part in creating the above list of Q&A.  Millions of people can contribute to it. This will allow the people to have a very direct impact on the training and selection of their own government instead of choosing the best available but imperfect candidate) Continue reading

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2019 Meetings and Conferences on AI, Analytics, Big Data, Data Mining, Data Science, Machine Learning, AR/VR/XR/MR

If you plan to attend a meeting or a conference on AI, Big Data, Machine Learning, or a related subject in 2019 or want to read or publish a paper on these subjects, below are some resources for you to use.

Conferences:

I personally doubt that the world needs that many events on this (or any other) subject in one year (and the list will get longer over time, I am sure), but, at least, there are lots of options to chose  from:

Continue reading

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Weekly Global Tech News, January 14, 2019

This is a guest post from Mike Montemorra, who is a technology guru with long and successful career in computer industry. Mike keeps an eye on the latest developments in computer and storage technology and publishes his observations weekly. Below is his brief summary of what was important in the past week.


What did we learn last week?

Hi everyone and Happy New Year to all!

This year has good things in store for all of us in the storage end of the business, of that I am sure, so let’s get going!

In case you haven’t seen this already, this is a very well written summarization of current HDD HAMR vs MAMR technologies.

The ‘winner’, of course, will be the company that makes the most money or can recoup some or all of their copious investments.    WD made its announcement that 16TB MAMR drives were ‘sampling’ at CES this week. I will be more impressed when they announce customer design wins and release some reliability data.

… and conventional HDD’s are still being announced with the recent Toshiba MG08 16TB drive.  I suppose we all knew that 16TB was inevitable given the 9D helium platform they have.  Others will probably follow suit since this is the path off least resistance toward higher capacity without ‘energy assist’ (MAMR or HAMR) products which will probably ramp up more slowly to provide a solid reli base for customer confidence.

The GreyBeards are at it again with a year-end CY18 summary report.  It’s interesting and probably predictive of trends for CY19.

… and Storage Newsletter has their predictions for CY19 as well (part 1 and part 2).  They say object storage is dead and composable infrastructure is emerging (what would be really interesting is compostable storage, but that may not be in the cards!)

Here’s an interesting paper on how STT-MRAM might evolve in coming years.

The first step in further increases in speed for these STT junctions is precise control of higher order spin waves.  There are potentially other uses besides memory for these kinds of spintronic devices.

Continue reading

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Weekly Global Tech News, January 7, 2019

This is a guest post from Mike Montemorra, who is a technology guru with long and successful career in computer industry. Mike keeps an eye on the latest developments in computer and storage technology and publishes his observations weekly. Below is his brief summary of what was important in the past week.


What did we learn last week?

Happy New Year 2019!  Let’s hope for good things to come for all of us as the storage industry works its way out of a supply glut while 5G and IoT emerge to generate more data! The second half of CY19 should once again be heady times again for the business, so buckle up as we swoop downward into the bottom of the cycle and start heading back upwards!

MAMR vs HAMR ‘rock ’em, sock ’em at 16TB and beyond… who will win or will both technologies see production?  Which will be the most flexible and reliable?  and most critically for the bottom line, which technology will be the most profitable?  Only time will tell…

I guess that, in retrospect, we should have seen the memory glut coming as data storage is always a cyclical business, but if you look at the future of storage in the coming years, the long term view is good (until the next cycle sets in, of course).  …and Korea, Inc is still investing at the bleeding edge (read DDR5 and MRAM)!


Here’s a good review of enterprise SSD products from various manufacturers.  Note the conspicuous lack of key HDD &SSD players WDC and STX in this particular SSD mix which is intended to span the range of enterprise market offerings.  Note also the (relatively) high power consumption levels and the wide range of DWPD specs…


A little more 5G hype for your new year.  …but seriously, I do believe that CY19 is going to see both the emergence of 5G and its rapid adoption (at least at the high end of the market), spawning a new chip boom late in the year.  Just look at the SnapDragon 855 processor that will be used in many ‘5G capable’ phones this year.  This article reviews the key capabilities of that 7nm chip.  

CES is next week!!   Here’s what should be big. https://techcrunch.com/2018/12/31/what-to-expect-from-ces-2019/


Of course, I couldn’t complete this week’s message without a few words about New Horizon’s latest accomplishment. They captured a bunch of data, but have paused because New Horizon is currently behind the sun… It is a testament to the laws of physics and the accuracy of our interactive orbital calculations that we can get this close to the object without smacking it!

NASA ‘ 2014 MU69  aka ‘Ultima Thule’.

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Weekly Global Tech News, December 31, 2018

This is a guest post from Mike Montemorra, who is a technology guru with long and successful career in computer industry. Mike keeps an eye on the latest developments in computer and storage technology and publishes his observations weekly. Below is his brief summary of what was important in the past week.


What did we learn last week?

To add to my comments from last week, when we emerge from the current solid state memory glut next year, what will the storage landscape look like for client, cloud and enterprise?  I suspect we will begin to see the emergence of memory-centric compute as 5G begins rollout.  I’d love to hear your comments and thoughts!

Is HAMR really ready now for real-life workloads?  Seagate and NetApp say yes.  Results from this upcoming integration step will finally tell the tale of HAMR.  If successful, look for lots of chest beating from STX…  (link)

Tom Coughlin has assembled a pretty comprehensive review of the storage landscape in this series.  I found it be be quite insightful.   In part 1, he comments about solid state memory pricing and elaborates on how the industry will achieve this in part 2.  Finally in part 3, he speculates on how all the data that is generated will be managed.  It’s getting interesting out there, folks!

Source: Coughlin Associates.  Note generationally that cost per bit reduces.

High speed AFA’s with huge capacities should proliferate in CY19, partly due to lower flash pricing.  The cost vs performance tradeoff will suddenly appeal to more customers, spelling good times ahead for AFA makers as they continue to expand their market presence.

Here’s a good review of the big data landscape in CY18.  A lot has happened this year… the data universe has dramatically expanded as have ways to deal with all this information.  For example, AWS revenues are $27B and growing at a 46% CAGR!  Others are growing even faster, but AWS illustrates what a monster cloud data management really is.    It looks like CY19-CY20 will see some of the other companies noted in this article explode to the forefront as efficient solutions begin to appear.

Continue reading

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Weekly Global Tech News, December 24, 2018

This is a guest post from Mike Montemorra, who is a technology guru with long and successful career in computer industry. Mike keeps an eye on the latest developments in computer and storage technology and publishes his observations weekly. Below is his brief summary of what was important in the past week.


What did we learn last week?

The year might be coming to an end shortly, but advances in technology that will make a difference in coming years do not slow down!  Despite the current oversupply situation in memory, it is important to note that these businesses have and always will be cyclical.  So what will drive the next big boom (in memory and otherwise)?  I think the upcoming buildout of 5G capable infrastructure and associated IoT products will start to take hold in 2HCY19.  The associated edge/fog compute buildouts should begin late CY19 as well, so hang on, but product mix on the other end of this glut may change!    Those of you with alternative views, please comment!

This quarter does not look good for HDD demand in almost all segments per TrendFocus.  Is this simply digestion of inventories or a portent of further HDD demand softening?  Combine this with flash oversupply (read: pricing reductions) in coming quarters and we may see further share loss for HDD in memory…

HDD demand forecast per Coughlin Associates:

The good news is there is still demand, but it is declining Y/Y primarily due to lack of meaningful areal density growth.  HDD demand will continue to decline but it will remain a good business for years.

So where is the memory market going in CY19?  Jim handy usually has a pretty good idea based on history and his divining of industry dynamics.  The outlook is not pretty and you will want to listen to his prognostication. 

 Source:  Jim Handy, Objective Analysis

… and to underscore all this, Digitimes says the 1HCY19 downturn will indeed be severe.   What is going to be interesting is whether we see some growth in 2HCY19 due to ramp ups for 5G and IoT infrastructure expected in CY20.

Continue reading

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The New Christmas Song…

Folks, to better reflect the latest tech trends… this is a new Christmas song!

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all of you!

Algorithms are comin’ to town!

By Andrei Khurshudov (sort of)

***

You better watch out

You better not cry

You cannot escape 

Pervasive AI

Algorithms are comin’ to town!

 

They are making a list

And searching it twice

They’re gonna compute 

Who’s naughty or nice

Algorithms are comin’ to town!

 

     They track you when you’re sleeping

     They sense when you’re awake

     They know what you will buy and eat

     So HIDE for goodness’ sake!

 

You better watch out

You better not cry

Turn off your laptop

I’m telling you why

Algorithms are comin’ to town!

 

     They log your shopping habits

     Predict where you will go

     They read emails that you receive

     And know what you don’t know

 

You better watch out

You better not cry

You better not pout

I’m telling you why

Algorithms are comin’ to town!

You better watch out

You better not cry

You cannot escape 

Pervasive AI

Algorithms are comin’ to town

***

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Weekly Global Tech News, December 17, 2018

This is a guest post from Mike Montemorra, who is a technology guru with long and successful career in computer industry. Mike keeps an eye on the latest developments in computer and storage technology and publishes his observations weekly. Below is his brief summary of what was important in the past week.


What did we learn last week?

Another HDD MAMR technology discussion with associated ‘roadmap’, this time by the only announced 9D HDD maker out there, Toshiba.   Is 20TB closer than we think?

Good news for everyone in the biz that storage demand continues to grow, so this current oversupply situation should remedy itself with time.  Meanwhile, it is an opportunity to develop compelling new products to gain share.

This is an interesting article on the maturing of eMRAM by both SMG and Intel. The cross-sections shown are beautiful and hopefully are also well behaved (also hopefully typical for the process).   Tom Coughlin/The Memory Guy are about to release a report on emerging memories of which eMRAM is a part and it promises to be very instructive.  Here is a teaser.

…and finally, some products are already being announced, including this AI accelerator chip with 40MB of eMRAM onboard.  Does anybody believe that embedded storage class memory won’t be the next ‘big’ revolution in compute?


Source: Sungkyunkwan Univ.

Not only can MoTe2 work as a very fast transistor as this image indicates, but it may also be possible to use this unique transition metal dichalcogenide material as a memristor.  Very cool…  This is still in the early developmental stage, so watch for developments as this one matures.

Continue reading

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AI Humor

Source: Dilbert.com

Posted in AI, artificial intelligence, machine learning, deep learning, Computers, Humor, The future of artificial intelligence | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment