I initially posted this on February 6, 2017. Even considering all the recent geopolitical events, I still hope I am right…
I found a summary that tells us a story of technology, the development of weapons, human hopes, and human fears. The “doomsday clock” records.
As you may see in the picture below, a group of US scientists working in the field of nuclear technology have created this “doomsday clock” after the invention of the atomic bomb to alert the world of how close we are to its end.
Recently, the same folks have updated the clock to “2.5 minutes till the end,” which is the closest time to “midnight” since 1953, when two superpowers first tested their H-bombs. The message of this recent announcement is pretty gloomy and pessimistic and I decided to add my own interpretation to it− an optimistic view on this very subject.
I want to add here that there is little science in my interpretation of this data. However, the data itself is not based on science either, but rather on a mix of facts, opinions, emotions, agendas, etc. So, I think I can be forgiven.
Anyway, my view of the same data is different and very positive:
- When things get really bad, we get scared (collectively)
- When we get scared, we become ready to talk and compromise
- When we compromise, things get better
- When things are good for a long time, we forget how bad things were in the past
- When that happens, we become less scared, less flexible, and less willing to talk
- And then, we all stop compromising and things get worse again
- And the cycle repeats itself
The word “cycle” is the key in the proposed model above, and this is what the first section of this post doesn’t convey. But the model does hint at is the existence of those “fear and happiness cycles” that occur within a period of about 30-35 years.
And, if this little unscientific theory based on just a few data points is correct, we are at the beginning of a new 15+ year cycle of peace, improving relationships, and prosperity till about 2032 or longer!
I am willing to wait and see.